This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 37% to break even | 5%–56% | 17 points shortwon 20%, needs 37% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 37% to break even | 13%–56% | 7 points shortwon 30%, needs 37% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 37% to break even | 22%–61% | 3 points betterwon 40%, needs 37% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 37% to break even | 5%–56% | 17 points shortwon 20%, needs 37% |
| Last season | 7 of 1644%needs 37% to break even | 26%–64% | 6 points betterwon 44%, needs 37% |
| Every game | 8 of 2138%needs 37% to break even | 23%–56% | 1 points betterwon 38%, needs 37% |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 42% to break even | -20.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -172at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 63% to break even | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.