This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 52% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% | 15receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 52% to break even | 17%–54% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 20.3receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 12receiving yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1631%needs 52% to break even | 16%–52% | 21 points shortwon 31%, needs 52% | 22.3receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 2133%needs 52% to break even | 19%–51% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% | 19.9receiving yards |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 52.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CLE defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 12.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 12.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 14 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 51 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 29 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 23 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 36 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 15 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 65% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -19.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 12.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 55% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 13.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 50% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -24.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +164at FanDuel | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 38% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 23.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +139at BetOnline | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 42% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -23.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +265at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 27% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +575at BetMGM | 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 15% to break even0 of 12 at home | -9.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 38% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even6 of 12 at home | -19.9Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 12 at home | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.