This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 67% to break even | 44%–95% | 13 points betterwon 80%, needs 67% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 67% to break even | 44%–87% | 3 points betterwon 70%, needs 67% | 15receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 67% to break even | 33%–72% | 13 points shortwon 53%, needs 67% | 20.3receiving yards |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 67% to break even | 44%–95% | 13 points betterwon 80%, needs 67% | 12receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 52.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CLE defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 19.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 31%–69% |
| 17 points shortwon 50%, needs 67% |
| 22.3receiving yards |
| Every game | 12 of 2157%needs 67% to break even | 40%–73% | 9 points shortwon 57%, needs 67% | 19.9receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 51 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 29 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 23 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | +3.5 | Won | |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 12 of 16· last season75%needs 65% to break even8 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 12.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 55% to break even8 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 13.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 53% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -102at FanDuel | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 50% to break even7 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -24.4Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +164at FanDuel | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 38% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +139at BetOnline | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 42% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +265at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 27% to break even5 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -11.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +575at BetMGM |
| 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 15% to break even0 of 12 at home |
| -9.5Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 38% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even6 of 12 at home | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 12 at home | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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