This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 12receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 15receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 53% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 20.3receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 12receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TEN plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against CLE. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 12 at home. Tonight: CLE allows 52.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CLE defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 13.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 48%–84% |
| 15 points betterwon 69%, needs 53% |
| 22.3receiving yards |
| Every game | 13 of 2162%needs 53% to break even | 44%–77% | 9 points betterwon 62%, needs 53% | 19.9receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 28 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 1 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 51 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 29 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 23 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 36 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 15 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 9 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| +140at Kalshi |
| 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 42% to break even4 of 12 at home |
| -19.6Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 52% to break even4 of 12 at home | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even5 of 12 at home | -23.2Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even5 of 12 at home | -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 12 at home | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 67% to break even6 of 12 at home | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +575at BetMGM |
| 2 of 15· last 15 games13%needs 15% to break even0 of 12 at home |
| -9.5Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 37% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 62% to break even9 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -186at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even6 of 12 at home | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsGunnar Helm · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 43% to break even3 of 12 at home | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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