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NFLPlayer propRushing yards
Derrick Henry over 79.5 rushing yards
Won7 of 10last 10 games · 70%
Best price-148Kalshi
Price needs59.7%wins to break even
Every game12 of 23this season and last
Trend score-22.9Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 60% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 60% to break even | 14%–73% | 20 points shortwon 40%, needs 60% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 60% to break even | 44%–87% | 10 points betterwon 70%, needs 60% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 60% to break even | 39%–78% | evenwon 60%, needs 60% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 60% to break even | 22%–78% | 10 points shortwon 50%, needs 60% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 60% to break even | 34%–71% | 7 points shortwon 53%, needs 60% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 60% to break even | 36%–68% | 8 points shortwon 52%, needs 60% |
Games like tonight
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Derrick Henry over 79.5 rushing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rushing yards in each game against over 79.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 79.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  CLE | 58 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  ATL | 102 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  TEN | 73 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  DAL | 89 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  NO | 68 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  IND | 144 | +64.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  PIT | 126 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  GB | 216 | +136.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  NE | 128 | +48.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  CIN | 100 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | PIT | 94 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | CIN | 60 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 |  NYJ | 64 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | CLE | 103 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  MIN | 75 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  MIA | 119 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 |  CHI | 71 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  LAR | 122 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  HOU | 33 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  KC | 42 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  DET | 50 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | CLE | 23 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  BUF | 169 | +89.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 79.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +105at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 85.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -112at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 86.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -115at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 89.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 58% to break even | -22.7Not beating its price | ||
| Under 99.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -28.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Derrick Henry in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price | ||
| Doesn't score a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.