This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 58% to break even | 44%–95% | 22 points betterwon 80%, needs 58% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 58% to break even | 19%–65% | 18 points shortwon 40%, needs 58% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 58% to break even | 28%–67% | 11 points shortwon 47%, needs 58% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 58% to break even | 35%–88% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 58% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 58% to break even | 29%–66% | 11 points shortwon 47%, needs 58% |
| Every game |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 89.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry |
| 36%–68% |
| 6 points shortwon 52%, needs 58% |
| 58 |
| +31.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 102 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 73 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 89 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 68 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 144 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 126 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 216 | -126.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 128 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 100 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 94 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 60 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 64 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 103 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 75 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 119 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 71 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 122 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 33 | +56.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 42 | +47.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 50 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 23 | +66.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 169 | -79.5 | Lost |
| -148at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even |
| -22.9Not beating its price |
| Over 85.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 86.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.8Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 51% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even |
| -15.4Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.