This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 38% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 38% to break even | 17%–54% | 4 points shortwon 33%, needs 38% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 38% to break even | 4%–50% | 21 points shortwon 17%, needs 38% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 38% to break even | 29%–66% | 9 points betterwon 47%, needs 38% |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 38% to break even | 24%–56% | 2 points betterwon 39%, needs 38% |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.