This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 67% to break even | 44%–95% | 13 points betterwon 80%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 67% to break even | 44%–87% | 3 points betterwon 70%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 67% to break even | 46%–83% | evenwon 67%, needs 67% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 67% to break even | 50%–96% | 17 points betterwon 83%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 67% to break even | 34%–71% | 14 points shortwon 53%, needs 67% |
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 99.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 67% to break even | 44%–76% | 6 points shortwon 61%, needs 67% |
| 1 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| +166at Kalshi |
| 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +146at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even |
| -14.6Not beating its price |
| Over 85.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price |
| Over 86.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 54% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
| Under 85.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.7Not beating its price |
| Under 86.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.5Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -28.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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