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NFLPlayer propRushing yards
Derrick Henry under 79.5 rushing yards
Won8 of 17last season · 47%
Best price+105Kalshi
Price needs48.8%wins to break even
Every game11 of 23this season and last
Trend score-21.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 49% to break even | 27%–86% | 11 points betterwon 60%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 49% to break even | 13%–56% | 19 points shortwon 30%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 49% to break even | 22%–61% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 49% to break even | 22%–78% | 1 points betterwon 50%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 49% to break even | 29%–66% | 2 points shortwon 47%, needs 49% |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 49% to break even | 32%–64% | 1 points shortwon 48%, needs 49% |
Games like tonight
Tonight BAL plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against CIN. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Derrick Henry under 79.5 rushing yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rushing yards in each game against under 79.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 79.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  CLE | 58 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  ATL | 102 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  TEN | 73 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  DAL | 89 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  NO | 68 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  IND | 144 | -64.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  PIT | 126 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  GB | 216 | -136.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  NE | 128 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  CIN | 100 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | PIT | 94 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | CIN | 60 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  NYJ | 64 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | CLE | 103 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 |  MIN | 75 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 |  MIA | 119 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 |  CHI | 71 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  LAR | 122 | -42.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  HOU | 33 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  KC | 42 | +37.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  DET | 50 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | CLE | 23 | +56.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  BUF | 169 | -89.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -148at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 60% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 85.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -110at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 52% to break even | -16.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 86.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -17.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 51% to break even | -20.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 99.5 rushing yardsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 42% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Derrick Henry in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price | ||
| Doesn't score a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 19.5 rush attemptsDerrick Henry · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.