This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 46% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 9 of 1560%needs 46% to break even | 39%–78% | 14 points betterwon 60%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 2 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsTee Higgins · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 37%–72% |
| 9 points betterwon 55%, needs 46% |
| 11 |
| -6.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 7 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| -126at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 56% to break even |
| -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at FanDuel | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 42% to break even | -19.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last season60%needs 40% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.7Not beating its price |
| Under 63.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 66.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetRivers | 11 of 15· last season73%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last season80%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price |
| Under 62.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 15· last season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -22.3Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 48% to break even | -23.8Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at BetRivers | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Over 63.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 receiving yardsTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 65% to break even | -27.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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