This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 66% to break even | 44%–95% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 66% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points shortwon 60%, needs 66% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 66% to break even | 28%–67% | 19 points shortwon 47%, needs 66% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 66% to break even | 44%–95% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% |
| Last season | 6 of 1540%needs 66% to break even | 22%–61% | 26 points shortwon 40%, needs 66% |
| Every game | 10 of 2050%needs 66% to break even | 33%–67% | 16 points shortwon 50%, needs 66% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against no, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Anytime TD | Beat 0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDTee Higgins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last season60%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.