This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 43% to break even | 27%–73% | 7 points betterwon 50%, needs 43% | 272passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1338%needs 43% to break even | 20%–61% | 5 points shortwon 38%, needs 43% | 243.8passing yards |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 43% to break even | 14%–73% | 3 points shortwon 40%, needs 43% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How BAL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against over 279.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 279.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 190 | -89.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 16%–65% |
| 6 points shortwon 38%, needs 43% |
| 226.1passing yards |
| Every game | 5 of 1338%needs 43% to break even | 20%–61% | 5 points shortwon 38%, needs 43% | 243.8passing yards |
| 428 |
| +148.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 282 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 207 | -72.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 254 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 236 | -43.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 305 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 309 | +29.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 225 | -54.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 284 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 261 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 76 | -203.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 113 | -166.5 | Lost |
| +189at Kalshi |
| 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 35% to break even3 of 7 on the road |
| -17.2Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Under 258.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 259.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Under 260.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped54%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -18.4Not beating its price |
| Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 57% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -123at BetOnline |
| 7 of 8· last season88%needs 55% to break even6 of 7 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +775at BetMGM | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 11% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +235at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 30% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 37.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 6 of 8· last season75%needs 51% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -169at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 51% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +380at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 21% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 54% to break even5 of 7 on the road | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -125at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 267.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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