This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 21% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 21% to break even | 5%–56% | 1 points shortwon 20%, needs 21% | 27completions |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 21% to break even | 2%–35% | 11 points shortwon 10%, needs 21% | 26.3completions |
| Last 15 games | 1 of 138%needs 21% to break even | 2%–28% | 13 points shortwon 8%, needs 21% | 23.7completions |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 21% to break even | 5%–56% | 1 points shortwon 20%, needs 21% | 27completions |
| Last season | 0 of 80% |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 0 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 21.3 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 16th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5). How BAL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against over 29.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 29.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 23 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 0%–25% |
| 21 points shortwon 0%, needs 21% |
| 21.6completions |
| Every game | 1 of 138%needs 21% to break even | 2%–28% | 13 points shortwon 8%, needs 21% | 23.7completions |
| 39 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 28 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 29 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 24 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 14 | -15.5 | Lost |
| +105at Bovada |
| 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 49% to break even4 of 7 on the road |
| -20.7Not beating its price |
| Under 25.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -123at BetOnline | 7 of 8· last season88%needs 55% to break even6 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +775at BetMGM |
| 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 11% to break even0 of 7 on the road |
| -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +235at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 30% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 37.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 6 of 8· last season75%needs 51% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 51% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 55% to break even5 of 7 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +240at BetRivers | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 29% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 267.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +131at DraftKings | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 43% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -17.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.