This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 272passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1354%needs 53% to break even | 32%–74% | evenwon 54%, needs 53% | 243.8passing yards |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 272.2passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 225.7 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): an easy matchup for this bet. How BAL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 258.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 258.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 190 | +68.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 25%–75% |
| 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| 226.1passing yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1354%needs 53% to break even | 32%–74% | evenwon 54%, needs 53% | 243.8passing yards |
| 428 |
| -169.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 282 | -23.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 207 | +51.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 254 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 236 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 305 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 309 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 225 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 284 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 261 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 76 | +182.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 113 | +145.5 | Won |
| -161at Kalshi |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 62% to break even4 of 7 on the road |
| -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 258.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 260.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 48% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -20.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -107at BetRivers |
| 6 of 8· last season75%needs 52% to break even4 of 7 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.6Not beating its price |
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 55% to break even5 of 7 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 42% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 64% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 51% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 52% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -23.3Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 on the road | -25.4Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -25.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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