This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 37.8pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% | 36.6pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1369%needs 53% to break even | 46%–85% | 16 points betterwon 69%, needs 53% | 34.5pass attempts |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 37.8pass attempts |
| Last season |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 32.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 15th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7). How BAL defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against under 37.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 37.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 5 | 32 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 5 of 863%needs 53% to break even |
| 35%–84% |
| 9 points betterwon 63%, needs 53% |
| 32.4pass attempts |
| Every game | 9 of 1369%needs 53% to break even | 46%–85% | 16 points betterwon 69%, needs 53% | 34.5pass attempts |
| 54 |
| -16.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 37 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 31 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 35 | +2.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 39 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 31 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 32 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 39 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 36 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 46 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 13 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 23 | +14.5 | Won |
| -177at DraftKings |
| 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 64% to break even3 of 7 on the road |
| -29.0Not beating its price |
| Over 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 53% to break even2 of 7 on the road | -25.4Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at DraftKings | 3 of 8· last season38%needs 52% to break even1 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.6Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +147at DraftKings | 2 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped15%needs 40% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -26.6Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +229at DraftKings | 2 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped15%needs 30% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -19.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -123at BetOnline |
| 7 of 8· last season88%needs 55% to break even6 of 7 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.1Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +775at BetMGM | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 11% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +235at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 30% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 rushing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -106at DraftKings | 6 of 8· last season75%needs 51% to break even4 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -169at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 51% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +380at BetRivers | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 21% to break even0 of 7 on the road | -13.7Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +240at BetRivers | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 29% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 262.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 249.5 passing yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped46%needs 44% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -15.8Not beating its price |
| Over 268.5 pass + rush yardsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -125at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 56% to break even3 of 7 on the road | -17.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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