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NFLPlayer propPassing TDs
Joe Burrow over 2.5 passing TDs
Won5 of 10last 10 games · 50%
Best price+235BetRivers
Price needs29.9%wins to break even
Every game5 of 13this season and last
Trend score-7.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 30% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 30% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points betterwon 40%, needs 30% | 2.2passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 30% to break even | 27%–73% | 20 points betterwon 50%, needs 30% | 2.4passing touchdowns |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1338%needs 30% to break even | 20%–61% | 9 points betterwon 38%, needs 30% | 2.2passing touchdowns |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 30% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points betterwon 40%, needs 30% | 2.2passing touchdowns |
| Last season | 3 of 838%needs 30% to break even | 16%–65% | 8 points betterwon 38%, needs 30% | 2.1passing touchdowns |
| Every game | 5 of 1338%needs 30% to break even | 20%–61% | 9 points betterwon 38%, needs 30% | 2.2passing touchdowns |
Games like tonight
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 0.8 passing touchdowns a game to quarterbacks, the 3rd fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 1.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How BAL defends quarterbacks
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Joe Burrow over 2.5 passing TDs9 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Passing TDs in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +146at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 41% to break even1 of 7 on the road | -17.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Joe Burrow in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.