This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 52% to break even | 5%–56% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% | 37.8pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 52% to break even | 13%–56% | 22 points shortwon 30%, needs 52% | 36.6pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1331%needs 52% to break even | 15%–54% | 22 points shortwon 31%, needs 52% | 34.5pass attempts |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 52% to break even | 5%–56% | 32 points shortwon 20%, needs 52% | 37.8pass attempts |
| Last season | 3 of 838%needs 52% to break even | 16%–65% | 15 points shortwon 38%, needs 52% | 32.4pass attempts |
| Every game | 4 of 1331%needs 52% to break even | 15%–54% | 22 points shortwon 31%, needs 52% | 34.5pass attempts |
Tonight CIN plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against BAL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 7 on the road. Tonight: BAL allows 32.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 15th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7). How BAL defends quarterbacks
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 37.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 36.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped62%needs 54% to break even5 of 7 on the road | -13.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 37.5 pass attemptsJoe Burrow · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 9 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped69%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | -8.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.