This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 59% to break even | 44%–95% | 21 points betterwon 80%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 59% to break even | 44%–87% | 11 points betterwon 70%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 59% to break even | 39%–78% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 59% to break even | 50%–96% | 25 points betterwon 83%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 59% to break even | 29%–66% | 12 points shortwon 47%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 13 of 2357%needs 59% to break even | 40%–72% | 2 points shortwon 57%, needs 59% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q total points in each game against over 7.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q total points | Beat 7.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6.5 3rd quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 1st half team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET |
| 17 |
| +9.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 11 | 13 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 27 | 20 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 28 | +20.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 13 | +5.5 | Won |
| Dec 21 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 17 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 30 | 8 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 23 | 0 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 0 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | 7 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 19 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 12 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 28 | 13 | +5.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 6 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 14 | 10 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 7 | 3 | -4.5 | Lost |
| 7 of 17· last season41%needs 34% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -18.2Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 3rd quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 47% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 1st quarter totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -109at Polymarket | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -7.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 2nd half spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +159at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 39% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| NO +1.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| NO +2.5 3rd quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 63% to break even | -10.1Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even | -10.6Not beating its price |
| NO -0.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 17· last season65%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.9Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +181at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| NO -2.5 4th quarter spreadNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, NO gamesNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +202at Polymarket | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 team totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 1st half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +173at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 37% to break even | -12.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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