This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 57% to break even | 35%–81% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 57% to break even | 33%–72% | 3 points shortwon 53%, needs 57% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 57% to break even | 50%–96% | 27 points betterwon 83%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 5 of 1729%needs 57% to break even | 15%–49% | 27 points shortwon 29%, needs 57% |
| Every game | 10 of 2343%needs 57% to break even | 28%–60% | 13 points shortwon 43%, needs 57% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H total points in each game against over 21.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H total points | Beat 21.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 41 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 23 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | 38 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 33 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 54 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 19 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 30 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 20 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 14 | 20 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 7 | 27 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 22 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | 11 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | 7 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 14 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 16 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | 13 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 6 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 10 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 26 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | 13 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 24 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 6 | -15.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +198at Kalshi | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +114at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -103at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.4Not beating its price | |
| Under 22.5 2nd half totalNew Orleans Saints · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -116at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.