This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 225.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 53% to break even | 7%–46% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% | 279.9passing and rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 53% to break even | 13%–48% | 27 points shortwon 27%, needs 53% | 265.1passing and rushing yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 257.8passing and rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 7 at home. Tonight: PIT allows 237.8 passing and rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 10th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 253.4): an easy matchup for this bet. How PIT defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass + rush yards in each game against under 250.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 18%–61% |
| 17 points shortwon 36%, needs 53% |
| 233.6passing and rushing yards |
| Every game | 6 of 1735%needs 53% to break even | 19%–55% | 18 points shortwon 35%, needs 53% | 242.2passing and rushing yards |
| 176 |
| +74.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 96 | +154.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 291 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 291 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 275 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 418 | -167.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 293 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 339 | -88.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 316 | -65.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 304 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 199 | +51.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 257 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 265 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 279 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 178 | +72.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 140 | +110.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +250.5 | Won |
| -198at FanDuel |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 66% to break even5 of 7 at home |
| -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -190at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 66% to break even5 of 7 at home | -18.1Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -146at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even5 of 7 at home | -13.3Not beating its price |
| Over 243.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 246.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 248.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -106at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 250.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +113at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even5 of 7 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +142at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 41% to break even4 of 7 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +172at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 37% to break even4 of 7 at home | -0.8Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +183at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 35% to break even4 of 7 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +152at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 40% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 237.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +105at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 7 at home | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +434at Polymarket | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 19% to break even0 of 7 at home | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 247.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +124at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even4 of 7 at home | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +195at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 34% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +108at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 227.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 228.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at BetRivers | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -114at Caesars | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 225.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +266at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 27% to break even2 of 7 at home | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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