This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 50% to break even | 14%–73% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% | 23.6completions |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 50% to break even | 13%–56% | 20 points shortwon 30%, needs 50% | 25.4completions |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 50% to break even | 22%–61% | 10 points shortwon 40%, needs 50% | 23.8completions |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 50% to break even | 12%–65% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 50% | 25.5completions |
| Last season | 6 of 1155% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 7 at home. Tonight: PIT allows 20.7 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 14th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5). How PIT defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against under 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 22.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 16 | +6.5 | ||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 32%–76% |
| 5 points betterwon 55%, needs 50% |
| 20.1completions |
| Every game | 8 of 1747%needs 50% to break even | 29%–66% | 3 points shortwon 47%, needs 50% | 22completions |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 16 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 30 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 35 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 23 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 22 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 32 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 24 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 13 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 26 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 30 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 19 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 15 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 17 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +22.5 | Won |
| -189at BetOnline |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 65% to break even5 of 7 at home |
| -20.5Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +109at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 48% to break even5 of 7 at home | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +145at BetMGM | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 41% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 25.5 completionsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +195at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 34% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +172at FanDuel |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 37% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| -0.8Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 40% to break even4 of 7 at home | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +142at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 41% to break even4 of 7 at home | -4.3Not beating its price |
| Over 237.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +105at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 49% to break even5 of 7 at home | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +425at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 19% to break even0 of 7 at home | -6.1Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +113at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 47% to break even5 of 7 at home | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Over 247.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +124at BetOnline | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 45% to break even4 of 7 at home | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +108at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 48% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -106at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even5 of 7 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +183at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 35% to break even4 of 7 at home | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 231.5 passing yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Over 250.5 pass + rush yardsTyler Shough · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -8.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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