This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 41% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points shortwon 40%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 41% to break even | 7%–46% | 21 points shortwon 20%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 41% to break even | 17%–54% | 7 points shortwon 33%, needs 41% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 41% to break even | 18%–82% | 9 points betterwon 50%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 4 of 1625%needs 41% to break even | 12%–45% | 16 points shortwon 25%, needs 41% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsNico Collins · |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsNico Collins |
| 16%–48% |
| 11 points shortwon 30%, needs 41% |
| 5 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 5 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 9 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 7 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 8 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -2.5 | Lost |
| +120at BetMGM |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 45% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -195at Fanatics | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -103at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even |
| -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +140at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.7Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at Fanatics | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 57% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 41% to break even | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -154at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 61% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +114at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -168at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 63% to break even | -22.6Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +100at Fanatics | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 16· last season19%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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