This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 46% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 46% to break even | 6%–64% | 21 points shortwon 25%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 8 of 1650%needs 46% to break even | 31%–69% | 4 points betterwon 50%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 59.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 74 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsNico Collins |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsNico Collins |
| 28%–63% |
| 1 points shortwon 45%, needs 46% |
| 56 |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 118 | -58.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 75 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 21 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 57 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 59 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 85 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 121 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 98 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 55 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 92 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 136 | -76.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 75 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 27 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 52 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 79 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 104 | -44.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 52 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 25 | +34.5 | Won |
| -154at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 61% to break even |
| -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at Fanatics | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 57% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 41% to break even | -20.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +120at BetMGM |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 45% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -195at Fanatics | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -161at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 62% to break even | -21.8Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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