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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Nico Collins under 79.5 receiving yards
Won4 of 5last 5 games · 80%
Best price-191Kalshi
Price needs65.6%wins to break even
Every game13 of 20this season and last
Trend score-21.2Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 66% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 66% to break even | 44%–95% | 14 points betterwon 80%, needs 66% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 66% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points shortwon 60%, needs 66% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 66% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points shortwon 60%, needs 66% |
| This season | 3 of 475%needs 66% to break even | 36%–94% | 9 points betterwon 75%, needs 66% |
| Last season | 10 of 1663%needs 66% to break even | 42%–79% | 3 points shortwon 63%, needs 66% |
| Every game | 13 of 2065%needs 66% to break even | 47%–80% | 1 points shortwon 65%, needs 66% |
Games like tonight
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Nico Collins under 79.5 receiving yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against under 79.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 79.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  JAX | 74 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  TEN | 56 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  DAL | 118 | -38.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  BUF | 75 | +4.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 |  PIT | 21 | +58.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  LAC | 57 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  LV | 59 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  ARI | 85 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  KC | 121 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  IND | 98 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | BUF | 55 | +24.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | TEN | 92 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | JAX | 136 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  DEN | 75 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 |  SEA | 27 | +52.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  BAL | 52 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | TEN | 79 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | JAX | 104 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  TB | 52 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  LAR | 25 | +54.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Nico Collins in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +120at BetMGM | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 45% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 3.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  +198at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) |  -195at Fanatics | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price | |
| Doesn't score a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 61% to break even | -21.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 4· this season75%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.