This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 42% to break even | 14%–73% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 42% to break even | 19%–65% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 42% to break even | 17%–54% | 8 points shortwon 33%, needs 42% |
| This season | 2 of 450%needs 42% to break even | 18%–82% | 8 points betterwon 50%, needs 42% |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 42% to break even | 21%–58% | 4 points shortwon 38%, needs 42% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Anytime TD in each game against yes, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsNico Collins |
| 24%–58% |
| 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -0.5 | Lost |
| -168at Kalshi |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 63% to break even |
| -22.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +120at BetMGM |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 45% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -135at Fanatics | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 57% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -195at Fanatics | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.9Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 41% to break even | -20.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -154at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 61% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +146at Kalshi | 2 of 4· this season50%needs 41% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +114at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 47% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 receiving yardsNico Collins · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +100at Fanatics | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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