This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 156.6passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% | 157.4passing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1275%needs 53% to break even | 51%–90% | 22 points betterwon 75%, needs 53% | 156.3passing yards |
| This season | 1 of 250%needs 53% to break even | 12%–88% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 121.5passing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 6 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 264.5 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 6th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 236.1): a tough matchup for this bet. How HOU defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 196.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 54%–93% |
| 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| 163.2passing yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1275%needs 53% to break even | 51%–90% | 22 points betterwon 75%, needs 53% | 156.3passing yards |
| Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 182 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 108 | +88.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 250 | -53.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 163 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 87 | +109.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 150 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 248 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 143 | +53.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 158 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 143 | +53.5 | Won |
| -182at BetRivers |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 65% to break even1 of 6 on the road |
| -32.9Not beating its price |
| Over 182.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -200at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 67% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -39.6Not beating its price |
| Over 189.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -154at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 61% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -35.3Not beating its price |
| Over 192.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -149at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 60% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -34.8Not beating its price |
| Over 196.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 51% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -28.7Not beating its price |
| Over 202.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -29.6Not beating its price |
| Over 203.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 204.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 53% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +108at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 48% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -26.5Not beating its price |
| Over 212.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +109at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 48% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -26.3Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +138at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 42% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -22.2Not beating its price |
| Over 222.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +134at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 43% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +180at BetRivers | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 36% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -17.7Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +174at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 36% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 232.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +165at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 38% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +220at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 31% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Over 242.5 passing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +200at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 33% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -16.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at Kalshi |
| 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 49% to break even6 of 6 on the road |
| 12.4Strong |
| Under 32.5 pass attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 52% to break even6 of 6 on the road | 10.2Strong |
| Under 19.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -120at Fanatics | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 55% to break even6 of 6 on the road | 8.3Strong |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 58% to break even6 of 6 on the road | 6.0Good |
| Under 5.5 rush attemptsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -122at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even5 of 6 on the road | 1.9Slight |
| Under 29.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last 15 games, 3 skipped92%needs 65% to break even6 of 6 on the road | 1.2Slight |
| Scores a TDJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +525at Fanatics | 4 of 10· last season40%needs 16% to break even4 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -0.1Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even5 of 6 on the road | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 229.5 pass + rush yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even5 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even5 of 6 on the road | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 232.5 pass + rush yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last season80%needs 53% to break even5 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -5.2Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 rushing yardsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -118at BetMGM | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 54% to break even5 of 6 on the road | -5.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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