This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 55% to break even | 65%–100% | 45 points betterwon 100%, needs 55% | 9.8completions |
| Last 10 games | 9 of 1090%needs 55% to break even | 65%–98% | 35 points betterwon 90%, needs 55% | 12.7completions |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1292%needs 55% to break even | 70%–98% | 37 points betterwon 92%, needs 55% | 12.6completions |
| This season | 2 of 2100%needs 55% to break even | 42%–100% | 45 points betterwon 100%, needs 55% | 5.5completions |
| Last season | 9 of 1090%needs 55% to break even | 65%–98% | 35 points betterwon 90%, needs 55% | 14completions |
| Every game | 11 of 1292%needs 55% to break even | 70%–98% | 37 points betterwon 92%, needs 55% | 12.6completions |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 6 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 23.8 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 5th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5): a tough matchup for this bet. How HOU defends quarterbacks
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 17.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -195at BetRivers | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 66% to break even0 of 6 on the road | -45.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 18.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 56% to break even0 of 6 on the road | -38.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 19.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +114at BetRivers | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 47% to break even0 of 6 on the road | -31.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 21.5 completionsJ.J. McCarthy · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +225at BetRivers | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 31% to break even0 of 6 on the road | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.