This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 51% to break even | 13%–56% | 21 points shortwon 30%, needs 51% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 51% to break even | 17%–54% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% |
| Last season | 7 of 1741%needs 51% to break even | 24%–61% | 10 points shortwon 41%, needs 51% |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 51% to break even | 24%–56% | 12 points shortwon 39%, needs 51% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 44.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB -0.5 3rd quarter spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 45 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 8 | 40 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 31 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 39 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 42 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 60 | +15.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 3 | 30 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 37 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 43 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Dec 11 | 57 | +12.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 44 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 37 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 23 | 41 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 76 | +31.5 | Won |
| Nov 9 | 51 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 26 | 26 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Oct 20 | 33 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 12 | 49 | +4.5 | Won |
| Oct 5 | 73 | +28.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 56 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | 56 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 15 | 39 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | 43 | -1.5 | Lost |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 38% to break even |
| -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -14.2Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 44% to break even | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 48% to break even | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | NV+104at Novig | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 49% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even | -3.3Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 game total, TB gamesTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -179at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even | -11.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 38% to break even |
| -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 team totalTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 team totalTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -13.2Not beating its price |
| TB +6.5 spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -195at Polymarket | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| TB +3.5 1st half spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 63% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price |
| TB -2.5 1st quarter spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 38% to break even | -16.8Not beating its price |
| TB -0.5 1st quarter spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 39% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price |
| TB -2.5 1st half spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.0Not beating its price |
| TB +0.5 1st quarter spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 61% to break even | -18.9Not beating its price |
| TB +5.5 spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.9Not beating its price |
| TB +2.5 1st quarter spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -158at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 61% to break even | -19.4Not beating its price |
| TB +4.5 spreadTampa Bay Buccaneers · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 12 of 17· last season71%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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