This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 58% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 81.4rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 58% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 68.7rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 58% to break even | 46%–83% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 58% | 66.9rushing yards |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 58% to break even | 35%–88% | 9 points betterwon 67%, needs 58% | 75.3rushing yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 6 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 103 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 10th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6): a tough matchup for this bet. How CAR defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 69.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 46 | +23.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 7 of 1070%needs 58% to break even |
| 44%–87% |
| 12 points betterwon 70%, needs 58% |
| 58.8rushing yards |
| Every game | 11 of 1669%needs 58% to break even | 48%–84% | 11 points betterwon 69%, needs 58% | 65rushing yards |
| Wk 5 |
| 165 |
| -95.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 61 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 46 | +23.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 89 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 45 | +24.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 85 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 19 | +50.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 71 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 60 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 55 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 61 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 63 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 66 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 71 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 37 | +32.5 | Won |
| -152at DraftKings |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 60% to break even3 of 6 on the road |
| -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -130at BetOnline | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 57% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -29.6Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Over 66.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -29.2Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 47% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -24.2Not beating its price |
| Over 74.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +120at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 45% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -27.6Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +172at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 37% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Over 84.5 rushing yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +170at BetOnline | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 37% to break even1 of 6 on the road | -21.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -147at BetOnline |
| 13 of 15· last 15 games87%needs 60% to break even3 of 6 on the road |
| -1.7Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 51% to break even4 of 6 on the road | -2.6Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +140at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 42% to break even2 of 6 on the road | -3.6Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -112at BetOnline | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 on the road | -4.2Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 53% to break even4 of 6 on the road | -4.5Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 receiving yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -116at DraftKings | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 54% to break even4 of 6 on the road | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 rush attemptsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -103at BetOnline | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 51% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -142at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 59% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rush attemptsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +123at BetOnline | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 45% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +200at BetOnline | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 33% to break even2 of 6 on the road | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +170at BetRivers | 5 of 10· last season50%needs 37% to break even4 of 6 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Under 86.5 rush + rec yardsBucky Irving · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -110at Bovada | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even3 of 6 on the road | -16.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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