This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 65% to break even | 44%–95% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% | 6.4receptions |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 65% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% | 5receptions |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 65% to break even | 33%–72% | 11 points shortwon 53%, needs 65% | 4.7receptions |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 65% to break even | 44%–95% | 15 points betterwon 80%, needs 65% | 6.4receptions |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 at home. Tonight: TB allows 12.5 receptions a game to wide receivers, the 11th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 11.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TD |
| 27%–63% |
| 20 points shortwon 44%, needs 65% |
| 4.2receptions |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 65% to break even | 36%–68% | 12 points shortwon 52%, needs 65% | 4.7receptions |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 14 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| +129at Kalshi |
| 10 of 18· last season56%needs 44% to break even4 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 5.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -135at BetMGM | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 57% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -9.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -168at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even7 of 11 at home |
| -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even3 of 11 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 42% to break even4 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -183at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even7 of 11 at home | -19.8Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even2 of 11 at home | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 63% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 52% to break even5 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 53% to break even5 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -23.8Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even4 of 11 at home | -24.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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