This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 42% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 42% to break even | 5%–56% | 22 points shortwon 20%, needs 42% | 94.2receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 42% to break even | 13%–56% | 12 points shortwon 30%, needs 42% | 74receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 42% to break even | 22%–61% | 2 points shortwon 40%, needs 42% | 70.3receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 42% to break even | 5%–56% | 22 points shortwon 20%, needs 42% | 94.2receiving yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1844% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 at home. Tonight: TB allows 145.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 14th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3). How TB defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 59.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 27%–63% |
| 3 points betterwon 44%, needs 42% |
| 60.8receiving yards |
| Every game | 9 of 2339%needs 42% to break even | 24%–56% | 3 points shortwon 39%, needs 42% | 68.1receiving yards |
| Beat 59.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 86 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 192 | -132.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +42.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 101 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 75 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 81 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 85 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +54.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 73 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 25 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 43 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 35 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 130 | -70.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 60 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 46 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 99 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 33 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 29 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 73 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 62 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 48 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 100 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 68 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 65% to break even7 of 11 at home |
| -19.8Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even6 of 11 at home | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 44% to break even3 of 11 at home | -17.9Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even2 of 11 at home | -21.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -135at BetMGM |
| 13 of 18· last season72%needs 57% to break even7 of 11 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -9.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 63% to break even7 of 11 at home | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Under 4.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 44% to break even4 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 64% to break even7 of 11 at home | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even4 of 11 at home | -24.9Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +120at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 45% to break even4 of 11 at home | -26.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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