This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 11 of 1861%needs 53% to break even | 42%–77% | 8 points betterwon 61%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 53% to break even | 36%–68% | 1 points shortwon 52%, needs 53% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 69.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 86 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 192 | -122.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 101 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 75 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 81 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 85 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 5 | +64.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 73 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 25 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 43 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 35 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 130 | -60.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 60 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 46 | +23.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 99 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 33 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 29 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 73 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 62 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 48 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 100 | -30.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 68 | +1.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price | ||
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -135at BetMGM | 13 of 18· last season72%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.6Not beating its price | |
| Doesn't score a TDTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 64% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even | -24.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 46% to break even | -26.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.