This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 57% to break even | 52%–87% | 16 points betterwon 73%, needs 57% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 57% to break even | 27%–86% | 3 points betterwon 60%, needs 57% |
| Last season | 13 of 1872%needs 57% to break even | 53%–86% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 5.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 5.5 receptionsTetairoa McMillan |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doesn't score a TDTetairoa McMillan · |
| Every game | 16 of 2370%needs 57% to break even | 52%–83% | 12 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% |
| 6 |
| -0.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 14 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 5 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 6 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| +119at Kalshi |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 46% to break even |
| -26.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -183at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 65% to break even |
| -12.4Not beating its price |
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 54% to break even | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Over 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 35% to break even | -21.4Not beating its price |
| Under 71.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 11 of 18· last season61%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 42% to break even | -24.9Not beating its price |
| Under 67.5 receiving yardsTetairoa McMillan · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 10 of 18· last season56%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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