This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 37% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 37% to break even | 0%–35% | 37 points shortwon 0%, needs 37% | 32receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 37% to break even | 2%–35% | 27 points shortwon 10%, needs 37% | 34.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 2 of 1513%needs 37% to break even | 5%–33% | 24 points shortwon 13%, needs 37% | 35.1receiving yards |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 37% to break even | 0%–31% | 37 points shortwon 0%, needs 37% | 31receiving yards |
| Last season | 4 of 1527%needs 37% to break even | 13%–48% | 11 points shortwon 27%, needs 37% | 38.1receiving yards |
| Every game | 4 of 2119%needs 37% to break even | 9%–36% | 18 points shortwon 19%, needs 37% | 36.1receiving yards |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 11 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 55.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 13th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CAR defends tight ends
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 60.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 60.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 4 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 25 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 37 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 56 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 38 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 94 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 33 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 15 | -45.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 19 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 9 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 21 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 28 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 82 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 40 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 65 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 51 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 81 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | -51.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 25 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -60.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 29.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +166at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 38% to break even7 of 11 on the road | -8.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -3.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 42.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -12.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -175at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 64% to break even10 of 11 on the road | -9.3Not beating its price | ||
| Under 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +130at Bovada | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -9.6Not beating its price | ||
| Scores a TDCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +260at BetMGM | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 28% to break even0 of 11 on the road | -21.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 42% to break even1 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -154at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 61% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.