This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 32receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 53% to break even | 54%–93% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 34.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 53% to break even | 59%–92% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% | 35.1receiving yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 53% to break even | 50%–96% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 53% | 31receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 9 of 11 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 55.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 13th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CAR defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 40.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 40.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even |
| 46%–83% |
| 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| 38.1receiving yards |
| Every game | 15 of 2171%needs 53% to break even | 54%–84% | 18 points betterwon 71%, needs 53% | 36.1receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 4 | +36.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 25 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 37 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 56 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 38 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 94 | -53.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 33 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 15 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 19 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 9 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 21 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 28 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 82 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 40 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 65 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 51 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 81 | -40.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 25 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +40.5 | Won | |
| -114at BetRivers |
| 6 of 15· last season40%needs 53% to break even3 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -30.1Not beating its price |
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -115at DraftKings | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 53% to break even3 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -34.4Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 5 of 15· last season33%needs 53% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -35.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 64% to break even10 of 11 on the road |
| -9.3Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 45% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +134at Kalshi | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 43% to break even1 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -151at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 60% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -30.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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