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NFLPlayer propReceptions
Cade Otton under 3.5 receptions
Won6 of 10last 10 games · 60%
Best price+109Kalshi
Price needs47.8%wins to break even
Every game11 of 21this season and last
Trend score-13.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 48% to break even | 27%–86% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 48% to break even | 35%–81% | 12 points betterwon 60%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 48% to break even | 33%–72% | 5 points betterwon 53%, needs 48% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 48% to break even | 35%–88% | 19 points betterwon 67%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 7 of 1547%needs 48% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points shortwon 47%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 11 of 2152%needs 48% to break even | 35%–69% | 5 points betterwon 52%, needs 48% |
Games like tonight
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Cade Otton under 3.5 receptions1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  PIT | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  DAL | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  GB | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  MIN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  CLE | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  CIN | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  CAR | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 |  MIA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | CAR | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  NO | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  ARI | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  LAR | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 |  BUF | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 |  NE | 9 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | NO | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 |  DET | 7 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  SF | 5 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  SEA | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  PHI | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  HOU | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  ATL | 0 | +3.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -148at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 60% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsCade Otton · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Cade Otton in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 55% to break even | -5.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -34.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.