This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 45% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 45% to break even | 5%–56% | 25 points shortwon 20%, needs 45% | 32receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 45% to break even | 7%–46% | 25 points shortwon 20%, needs 45% | 34.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 45% to break even | 8%–41% | 25 points shortwon 20%, needs 45% | 35.1receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 45% to break even | 4%–50% | 28 points shortwon 17%, needs 45% | 31receiving yards |
| Last season | 5 of 1533% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 11 on the road. Tonight: CAR allows 55.6 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 13th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How CAR defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 50.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 50.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 17%–54% |
| 12 points shortwon 33%, needs 45% |
| 38.1receiving yards |
| Every game | 6 of 2129%needs 45% to break even | 16%–46% | 16 points shortwon 29%, needs 45% | 36.1receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 4 | -46.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 25 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 37 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 56 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 38 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 26 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 94 | +43.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 33 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 15 | -35.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 19 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 9 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 21 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 28 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 82 | +31.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 40 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 65 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 51 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 81 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 9 | -41.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 25 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -50.5 | Lost | |
| +166at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 38% to break even7 of 11 on the road |
| -8.6Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -3.4Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -114at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -2.2Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -12.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -175at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 64% to break even10 of 11 on the road |
| -9.3Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +130at Bovada | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 43% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -9.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +260at BetMGM | 1 of 10· last 10 games10%needs 28% to break even0 of 11 on the road | -21.5Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | +140at Kalshi | 4 of 15· last season27%needs 42% to break even1 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -27.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsCade Otton · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Egbuka (WR) | -154at Kalshi | 8 of 15· last season53%needs 61% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -31.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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