This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 53% to break even | 8%–41% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 3 of 1421%needs 53% to break even | 9%–43% | 31 points shortwon 21%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 219.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Passing yards | Beat 219.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 272 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 189.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes |
| 10%–40% |
| 32 points shortwon 21%, needs 53% |
| 225 |
| -5.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 246 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 382 | -162.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 184 | +35.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 15 | 189 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 160 | +59.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 261 | -41.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 352 | -132.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 276 | -56.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 250 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 299 | -79.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 286 | -66.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 257 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 318 | -98.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 270 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 224 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 187 | +32.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 258 | -38.5 | Lost |
| -250at Bovada |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 71% to break even |
| -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 199.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -190at Bovada | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.4Not beating its price |
| Over 217.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even | -1.7Not beating its price |
| Over 218.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.2Not beating its price |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -0.9Not beating its price |
| Over 221.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.4Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 48% to break even | -4.1Not beating its price |
| Over 239.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 42% to break even | 0.6Slight |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.5Slight |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -112at Kalshi |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even |
| -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -111at BetMGM | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 53% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 0.5 interceptions thrownPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 completionsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 rush attemptsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 pass attemptsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 11 of 14· last season79%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.7Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 39% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 rush attemptsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 59% to break even | -26.6Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 completionsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 57% to break even | -27.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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