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NFLPlayer propRushing yards
Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards
Won11 of 15last 15 games · 73%
Best price-112Kalshi
Price needs52.8%wins to break even
Every game13 of 19this season and last
Trend score-6.5Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 53% to break even | 44%–87% | 17 points betterwon 70%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 53% to break even | 52%–87% | 21 points betterwon 73%, needs 53% |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 10 of 1471%needs 53% to break even | 49%–86% | 19 points betterwon 71%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 13 of 1968%needs 53% to break even | 50%–83% | 16 points betterwon 68%, needs 53% |
Games like tonight
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Patrick Mahomes over 14.5 rushing yards5 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Rushing yards in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  LAC | 16 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  LV | 0 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  MIA | 1 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  IND | 17 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  DEN | 23 | +8.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 15 | LAC | 15 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  HOU | 59 | +44.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  DAL | 30 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | IND | 30 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | DEN | 3 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  BUF | 5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 |  WSH | 30 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | LV | 28 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  DET | 32 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  JAX | 60 | +45.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  BAL | 5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  NYG | 2 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  PHI | 66 | +51.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | LAC | 57 | +42.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |  +159at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 39% to break even | -20.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |  -108at DraftKings | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 52% to break even | -30.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 15.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |  -120at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 55% to break even | -29.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 19.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 67% to break even | -29.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Patrick Mahomes in this game
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.