This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 54% to break even | 5%–56% | 34 points shortwon 20%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 54% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 54% to break even | 39%–78% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 54% to break even | 5%–56% | 34 points shortwon 20%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 11 of 1479%needs 54% to break even | 57%–91% | 25 points betterwon 79%, needs 54% |
| Every game |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 31.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 31.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 30 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 31.5 pass attemptsPatrick Mahomes |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 239.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes |
| 44%–79% |
| 9 points betterwon 63%, needs 54% |
| 30 |
| -1.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 24 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 47 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 27 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 15 | 28 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 33 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 34 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 46 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 45 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 34 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 34 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 35 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 30 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 41 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 37 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 37 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 29 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 39 | +7.5 | Won |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even |
| -22.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +140at Bovada |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 42% to break even |
| 0.6Slight |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | 0.5Slight |
| Over 219.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -0.9Not beating its price |
| Over 224.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 51% to break even | -1.0Not beating its price |
| Over 218.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.2Not beating its price |
| Over 221.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.4Not beating its price |
| Over 215.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at Fanatics | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -1.4Not beating its price |
| Over 217.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 54% to break even | -1.7Not beating its price |
| Over 229.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +110at Bovada | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 48% to break even | -4.1Not beating its price |
| Over 209.5 passing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -145at Bovada | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 passing TDsPatrick Mahomes · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 41% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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