This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 35% to break even | 5%–56% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 35% to break even | 2%–35% | 25 points shortwon 10%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 35% to break even | 8%–41% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 35% to break even | 4%–50% | 18 points shortwon 17%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 3 of 1421%needs 35% to break even | 9%–43% | 13 points shortwon 21%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 4 of 2020%needs 35% to break even | 9%–38% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% |
Tonight TROY plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against UL. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 57.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 57.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 39 | -18.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 27.5 team totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET |
| 89 |
| +31.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 31 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 44 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 51 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 45 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 16 | JVST | 30 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Dec 5 | 45 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Nov 29 | 46 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 50 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 13 | 33 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 33 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 58 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 51 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 89 | +31.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 55 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 38 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 35 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 43 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 58 | +0.5 | Won |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even |
| -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 50% to break even | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Under 50.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 51% to break even | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Under 51.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 56% to break even | -1.6Not beating its price |
| Under 52.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 59% to break even | -4.0Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 61% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 game total, TROY gamesTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 64% to break even | -7.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 37% to break even |
| -3.6Not beating its price |
| Under 34.5 team totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 9 of 10· last 10 games90%needs 62% to break even | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 team totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 47% to break even | -8.0Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Under 23.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 41% to break even | -17.3Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 1st half totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.8Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 team totalTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 2 of 14· last season14%needs 36% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.3Not beating its price |
| TROY -20.5 spreadTroy · Tomorrow 4:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 37% to break even | -26.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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