This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 40% to break even | 27%–86% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 40% to break even | 27%–73% | 10 points betterwon 50%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 40% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points betterwon 47%, needs 40% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 40% to break even | 22%–78% | 10 points betterwon 50%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 7 of 1354%needs 40% to break even | 32%–74% | 14 points betterwon 54%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 40% to break even | 35%–70% | 13 points betterwon 53%, needs 40% |
Tonight TEX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MISS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 48.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 48.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 51 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 48.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX -3.5 1st quarter spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET |
| 51 |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 37 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 36 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 47 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 66 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 68 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 44 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 89 | -40.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 45 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 65 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Oct 25 | 83 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 29 | +19.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 29 | +19.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | 50 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 55 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 37 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 45 | +3.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 21 | +27.5 | Won |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 65% to break even |
| -31.3Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | -37.1Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 57% to break even | Record is last season's | -35.6Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -109at Polymarket | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.0Not beating its price |
| Over 54.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -30.0Not beating its price |
| Over 55.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 46% to break even | -28.4Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 45% to break even | -27.1Not beating its price |
| Over 57.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 44% to break even | -26.3Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 36% to break even | -19.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 39% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -3.6Not beating its price |
| TEX -6.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.1Not beating its price |
| TEX -4.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price |
| TEX -3.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 1st half totalTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 54% to break even | -6.8Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 47% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st quarter totalTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 63% to break even | -9.5Not beating its price |
| TEX -0.5 1st quarter spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | -9.7Not beating its price |
| TEX -9.5 spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +198at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 34% to break even | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| TEX -2.5 1st quarter spreadTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 47% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.0Not beating its price |
| Under 30.5 team totalTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 59% to break even | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 1st half totalTexas Longhorns · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 51% to break even | -11.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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