This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 39% to break even | 44%–95% | 41 points betterwon 80%, needs 39% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 39% to break even | 35%–81% | 21 points betterwon 60%, needs 39% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 39% to break even | 28%–67% | 8 points betterwon 47%, needs 39% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 39% to break even | 50%–96% | 45 points betterwon 83%, needs 39% |
| Last season | 5 of 1338%needs 39% to break even | 20%–61% | evenwon 38%, needs 39% |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 39% to break even | 35%–70% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 39% |
Tonight TEX plays at home, as the favorite, after a loss, against MISS. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q margin in each game against tex 1q -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 51.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET |
| 7 |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | -7 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 28 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 8 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 17 | +13.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 7 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 14 | +10.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 0 | -3.5 | Lost |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 44% to break even |
| 2.5Slight |
| Under 52.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 48% to break even | -0.3Not beating its price |
| Under 53.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -105at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even | -3.0Not beating its price |
| Under 54.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -110at FanDuel | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even | -3.9Not beating its price |
| TEX -6.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 38% to break even | Record is this season's | -4.1Not beating its price |
| TEX -4.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price |
| TEX -3.5 1st half spreadTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 45% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 55.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -134at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 57% to break even | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 1st half totalTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even | -7.5Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 47% to break even | -8.1Not beating its price |
| Under 48.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Under 56.5 game total, TEX gamesTexas Longhorns · Tomorrow 7:30 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 61% to break even | -9.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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