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NCAAFGame lineSpread
ARST -4.5 (spread)
Won5 of 15last 15 games · 33%
Best price+181Kalshi
Price needs35.6%wins to break even
Every game6 of 20this season and last
Trend score-18.6Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 36% to break even | 5%–56% | 16 points shortwon 20%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 36% to break even | 13%–56% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 36% to break even | 17%–54% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 36% to break even | 10%–59% | 7 points shortwon 29%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 4 of 1331%needs 36% to break even | 15%–54% | 5 points shortwon 31%, needs 36% |
| Every game | 6 of 2030%needs 36% to break even | 16%–48% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% |
Games like tonight
Tonight ARST plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against GAST. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
ARST -4.5 (spread)1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Margin in each game against arst -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 |  USM | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 8 |  USA | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Oct 3 |  UL | -3 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 |  KENN | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 |  TCU | -24 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | WES | 45 | +40.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 |  MEM | -18 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 18 |  MOST | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Nov 29 |  APP | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 20 | UL | -4 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Nov 8 | USM | -6 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 |  TROY | 13 | +8.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 |  GASO | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 14 | USA | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 |  TXST | 1 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 |  ULM | -12 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | KENN | -7 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 |  ISU | -8 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 |  ARK | -42 | -46.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 |  SEMO | 18 | +13.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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More on Arkansas State Red Wolves in this game
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.