This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 59% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 59% to break even | 27%–86% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 59% to break even | 44%–87% | 11 points betterwon 70%, needs 59% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 59% to break even | 39%–78% | 1 points betterwon 60%, needs 59% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 59% to break even | 35%–88% | 8 points betterwon 67%, needs 59% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 59% to break even | 39%–80% | 3 points betterwon 62%, needs 59% |
| Every game | 12 of 1963%needs 59% to break even | 44%–79% | 4 points betterwon 63%, needs 59% |
Tonight TXST plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against USU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
3Q total points in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 3Q total points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | 27 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 12 | 16 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 2 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 8 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 28 | 21 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 11 | 17 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 20 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 24 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 14 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 13.5 3rd quarter totalTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 49% to break even | -25.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.