This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 47% to break even | 14%–73% | 7 points shortwon 40%, needs 47% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 47% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points betterwon 50%, needs 47% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 47% to break even | 17%–54% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 47% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 47% to break even | 12%–65% | 13 points shortwon 33%, needs 47% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 47% to break even | 26%–68% | 1 points shortwon 46%, needs 47% |
| Every game | 8 of 1942%needs 47% to break even | 26%–61% | 5 points shortwon 42%, needs 47% |
Tonight TXST plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against USU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1Q total points in each game against under 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1Q total points | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 15 | 21 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 1st quarter totalTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 68.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET |
| 13 |
| +0.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 35 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 28 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 7 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 2 | 0 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 22 | 0 | +13.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 28 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 35 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 10 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 6 | +7.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | 2 | +11.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 17 | -3.5 | Lost |
| 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 60% to break even |
| -20.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 36% to break even |
| -6.7Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -168at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 63% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 43% to break even | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 57% to break even | -10.3Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 46% to break even | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 63.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 47% to break even | -11.4Not beating its price |
| Over 37.5 1st half totalTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 35% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 62.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 49% to break even | -13.0Not beating its price |
| TXST -20.5 spreadTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 36% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Over 61.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 51% to break even | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Over 60.5 game total, TXST gamesTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 1st half totalTexas State Bobcats · Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 44% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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