This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 40% to break even | 27%–86% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 40% to break even | 35%–81% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 40% to break even | 39%–78% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 40% to break even | 22%–78% | 10 points betterwon 50%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 10 of 1471%needs 40% to break even | 49%–86% | 32 points betterwon 71%, needs 40% |
| Every game | 13 of 2065%needs 40% to break even | 47%–80% | 25 points betterwon 65%, needs 40% |
Tonight UNT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NAVY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against unt 1h -4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 10 | 30 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Oct 1 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 34.5 team totalNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET |
| -7 |
| -11.5 |
| Lost |
| Sep 26 | 21 | +16.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 17 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | -18 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 8 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 5 | -17 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Nov 28 | 28 | +23.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 14 | +9.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 24 | +19.5 | Won |
| Nov 1 | 14 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 24 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 10 | +5.5 | Won |
| Oct 10 | 0 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 7 | +2.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 14 | +9.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 39 | +34.5 | Won |
| Sep 6 | -10 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 37 | +32.5 | Won |
| 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 46% to break even |
| 8.7Strong |
| Over 37.5 team totalNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 36% to break even | 5.2Good |
| Over 31.5 team totalNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 55% to break even | 3.0Slight |
| Over 30.5 team totalNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 13 of 14· last season93%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.2Slight |
| UNT -7.5 spreadNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +202at Polymarket | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 33% to break even | Record is last season's | -0.6Not beating its price |
| Over 68.5 game total, UNT gamesNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 39% to break even | -2.7Not beating its price |
| Over 65.5 game total, UNT gamesNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +126at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 44% to break even | -2.7Not beating its price |
| UNT -0.5 1st quarter spreadNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +121at Polymarket | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 45% to break even | -4.0Not beating its price |
| UNT -6.5 spreadNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 40% to break even | Record is last season's | -4.5Not beating its price |
| UNT to win moneylineNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | NV-125at Novig | 12 of 14· last season86%needs 56% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.3Not beating its price |
| Over 64.5 game total, UNT gamesNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 48% to break even | -5.5Not beating its price |
| UNT -5.5 spreadNorth Texas Mean Green · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 14· last season71%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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