This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 52% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 52% to break even | 39%–78% | 8 points betterwon 60%, needs 52% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 52% to break even | 12%–65% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 9 of 1275%needs 52% to break even | 51%–90% | 23 points betterwon 75%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 11 of 1861%needs 52% to break even | 42%–77% | 9 points betterwon 61%, needs 52% |
Tonight BAY plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against KU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 52.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 52.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 23 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 74 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 36 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 55 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 47 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 33 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 55 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 58 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 15 | 83 | +30.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 33 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 61 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Oct 18 | 78 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 69 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 72 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 51 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 49 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | 93 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | 62 | +9.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 52.5 game total, BAY gamesBaylor Bears · Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET | -105at Hard Rock | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAY -0.5 1st half spreadBaylor Bears · Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price | ||
| BAY -2.5 spreadBaylor Bears · Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET | NV-108at Novig | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 52% to break even | -19.3Not beating its price | ||
| BAY to win moneylineBaylor Bears · Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET | PX-127at ProphetX | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even | -20.4Not beating its price | ||
| BAY +0.5 1st half spreadBaylor Bears · Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.