This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 52% to break even | 44%–95% | 28 points betterwon 80%, needs 52% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 52% to break even | 27%–73% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 52% to break even | 22%–61% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 52% to break even | 35%–88% | 15 points betterwon 67%, needs 52% |
| Last season | 4 of 1233%needs 52% to break even | 16%–57% | 19 points shortwon 33%, needs 52% |
| Every game | 8 of 1844%needs 52% to break even | 27%–63% | 7 points shortwon 44%, needs 52% |
Tonight BAY plays on the road, as the favorite, after a loss, against KU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against bay -2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -11 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 36 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 10 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 17 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 41 | +38.5 | Won | |
| Sep 5 | -1 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | -7 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | -24 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | -27 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 1 | 27 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -21 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 18 | -6 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | 18 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -3 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 35 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Aug 29 | -14 | -16.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 52.5 game total, BAY gamesBaylor Bears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | LVG-108at LowVig | 9 of 12· last season75%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.7Not beating its price | |
| BAY -0.5 1st half spreadBaylor Bears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -17.9Not beating its price | ||
| BAY to win moneylineBaylor Bears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | PX-127at ProphetX | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 56% to break even | -20.4Not beating its price | ||
| BAY +0.5 1st half spreadBaylor Bears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 62% to break even | -20.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 52.5 game total, BAY gamesBaylor Bears · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at Hard Rock | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.