This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 35% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 35% to break even | 13%–56% | 5 points shortwon 30%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 35% to break even | 22%–61% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| This season | 2 of 729%needs 35% to break even | 10%–59% | 6 points shortwon 29%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 5 of 1242%needs 35% to break even | 22%–64% | 7 points betterwon 42%, needs 35% |
| Every game | 7 of 1937%needs 35% to break even | 21%–56% | 2 points betterwon 37%, needs 35% |
Tonight BALL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against SAC. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H total points in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H total points | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 20 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 23.5 1st half totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 27.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET |
| 45 |
| -24.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 3 | 25 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 17 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 24 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 31 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 41 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 22 | 27 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 20 | +0.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | 13 | +7.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 14 | +6.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 29 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 14 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 17 | +3.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 49 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 21 | -0.5 | Lost |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 63% to break even |
| -24.5Not beating its price |
| Over 26.5 1st half totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 53% to break even | -26.2Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 1st half totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 47% to break even | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 1st half totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +166at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 38% to break even | -23.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 10 of 12· last season83%needs 35% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| 14.1Strong |
| Under 30.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | 6.9Good |
| Under 34.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -142at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last season92%needs 59% to break even | Record is last season's | 4.6Good |
| Under 31.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | 1.3Slight |
| Under 37.5 team totalBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last season92%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.6Not beating its price |
| Over 56.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 39% to break even | Record is this season's | -2.4Not beating its price |
| Over 53.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +119at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | -6.9Not beating its price |
| Over 52.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 48% to break even | Record is this season's | -8.6Not beating its price |
| Over 51.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 51 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | LVG-108at LowVig | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -11.8Not beating its price |
| Over 50.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 55% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 game total, BALL gamesBall State Cardinals · Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 6 of 7· this season86%needs 57% to break even | Record is this season's | -15.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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